Andrew Colclough

Web Design & Dev., Liberty, Economics, Football

Here is a math problem for you:

Assume that the legislation establishing government control of medical care is passed and that it "brings down the cost of medical care." You pay $500 a year less for your medical care, but the new costs put on employers is passed on to consumers, so that you pay $300 a year more for groceries and $200 a year more for gasoline, while the new mandates put on insurance companies raise your premiums by $300 a year, how much money have you saved?

-Thomas Sowell

Math, like economic facts -> politically inconvenient.

Filed under  //   economics   math   politics   thomas sowell  

Daniel Henninger on Climategate: Science Is Dying - WSJ.com

Surely there must have been serious men and women in the hard sciences who at some point worried that their colleagues in the global warming movement were putting at risk the credibility of everyone in science. The nature of that risk has been twofold: First, that the claims of the climate scientists might buckle beneath the weight of their breathtaking complexity. Second, that the crudeness of modern politics, once in motion, would trample the traditions and culture of science to achieve its own policy goals. With the scandal at the East Anglia Climate Research Unit, both have happened at once.

I don't think most scientists appreciate what has hit them. This isn't only about the credibility of global warming. For years, global warming and its advocates have been the public face of hard science. Most people could not name three other subjects they would associate with the work of serious scientists. This was it. The public was told repeatedly that something called "the scientific community" had affirmed the science beneath this inquiry. A Nobel Prize was bestowed (on a politician).

Global warming enlisted the collective reputation of science. Because "science" said so, all the world was about to undertake a vast reordering of human behavior at almost unimaginable financial cost. Not every day does the work of scientists lead to galactic events simply called Kyoto or Copenhagen. At least not since the Manhattan Project.

What is happening at East Anglia is an epochal event. As the hard sciences—physics, biology, chemistry, electrical engineering—came to dominate intellectual life in the last century, some academics in the humanities devised the theory of postmodernism, which liberated them from their colleagues in the sciences. Postmodernism, a self-consciously "unprovable" theory, replaced formal structures with subjectivity. With the revelations of East Anglia, this slippery and variable intellectual world has crossed into the hard sciences.

[...]

The East Anglians' mistreatment of scientists who challenged global warming's claims—plotting to shut them up and shut down their ability to publish—evokes the attempt to silence Galileo. The exchanges between Penn State's Michael Mann and East Anglia CRU director Phil Jones sound like Father Firenzuola, the Commissary-General of the Inquisition.

For three centuries Galileo has symbolized dissent in science. In our time, most scientists outside this circle have kept silent as their climatologist fellows, helped by the cardinals of the press, mocked and ostracized scientists who questioned this grand theory of global doom. Even a doubter as eminent as Princeton's Freeman Dyson was dismissed as an aging crank.

Beneath this dispute is a relatively new, very postmodern environmental idea known as "the precautionary principle." As defined by one official version: "When an activity raises threats of harm to the environment or human health, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically." The global-warming establishment says we know "enough" to impose new rules on the world's use of carbon fuels. The dissenters say this demotes science's traditional standards of evidence.

The Environmental Protection Agency's dramatic Endangerment Finding in April that greenhouse gas emissions qualify as an air pollutant—with implications for a vast new regulatory regime—used what the agency called a precautionary approach. The EPA admitted "varying degrees of uncertainty across many of these scientific issues." Again, this puts hard science in the new position of saying, close enough is good enough. One hopes civil engineers never build bridges under this theory.

[...]

If the new ethos is that "close-enough" science is now sufficient to achieve political goals, serious scientists should be under no illusion that politicians will press-gang them into service for future agendas. Everyone working in science, no matter their politics, has an stake in cleaning up the mess revealed by the East Anglia emails. Science is on the credibility bubble. If it pops, centuries of what we understand to be the role of science go with it.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE online.wsj.com

Interesting perspective on the story. As I keep saying - as soon as generally good things, such as science, economics, religion... enter the political realm - they often become nothing more than tools of force, propaganda, and destruction.
And anyone who is claiming that the science behind AGW 'is closed' or that 'the debate is over' - is acting against science. Science, by it's very nature, cannot be closed. Those who are claiming this concept should be rejected from entering the real debate over climate science, right along with those who manipulated the data, and used bully tactics against other scientists - as in the case of the CRU emails.

Filed under  //   AGW   Daniel Henninger   Galileo   climateGate   economics   environment   politics   science   wall street journal  

When you see these signs - do you get the joke? (Hint: Seen vs. Unseen)

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Part of me laughs, and part of me cringes whenever I see these signs....because they are absolute rubbish. This sign is based on the assumption that we the public are either too lazy, or just too ignorant to think beyond what we immediatly see.

Whenever we are presented with this concept: that the government can "put people to work," the question must be asked, "How?" 

When a non-state entity creates a job, it does so either by taking out a loan on the investment bet that the job created will produce enough value to repay or exceed the loan taken, or by reinvesting its own existing capital with a similar goal.

The State "creates jobs" or "puts people back to work" either with existing tax revenues, or by taking on debt to be funded through future tax revenues. I used quotes above because anyone with a grasp of elementary mathematics would realize that this is neither "creating jobs" nor "putting people back to work." It is nothing more than shifting work around.

Ask yourself, what would the tax revenues taken by the state to 'put Oregon back to work' have been used for otherwise? What of the things the tax-payers would have invested their money in, had it not been taxed away?

The answer is: jobs.

Perhaps the tax-payer was planning on buying some new shoes (a shoe salesman's paycheck), going out for an extra nice dinner (a restaurant worker's wages and tip), a kitchen remodel project (construction material producers, contractors, cabinet makers, plumbers, etc) planning to add to their payroll at work to hire a new employee, or even donating money to their favorite charity. But these things will never be seen because some politician had the nice, though deceptive and false idea that they had the ability to "put Oregonians back to work."

It is important at this point to understand that money is nothing more than a representation of labor, or work. We choose to work and earn money because money allows us to trade the value of something we are good at (in my case, web developement), for something we value that we aren't good at, or couldn't possibly create on our own (e.g. a ticket to football game. I neither play football, nor do I have the knowlege or ability to coach a team, let alone build a football stadium. Heck, I even suck at Madden...).

The point is that the sign above is clearly hogwash. It is based on the flawed notion that governments create things. To accept this idea, is to throw out the economic concept of opportunity cost. Government is force. The government is the only entity that we allow the power to involuntarily take our money and re-appropriate it. In this case - it is the opportunity for the tax dollars to have been spent elsewhere - that the government is forgoing so they can be assigned to this road project. If the sign was actually honest it would read: Taking a portion of your work, and directing it to someone or something else. Or perhaps simply, Making Oregonians pay for this road project.  

But telling the truth doesn't matter to politicians because when there is a problem (such as a down economy) they must be seen as doing something to fix the problem. The perception that they are doing something to 'put Oregon back to work' is far more important politically than the actual truth, that they just moved work to a project that the voters will see. What the voters won't see is all of the jobs that were sacrificed to make that particular road project possible.

It is important for me to mention that here, I am not necessarily arguing against road or other government projects. I am however calling out the hack politicians who think that tax-payers are dumb enough to fall for the ludicrous idea that government can create jobs by simply spending them into existence. From here, you can draw your own conclusion on whether the 'stimulus' bill will actually stimulate anything, other than some politician's delusion of grandure.

Oh, and here's the real irony of ironies: This sign is on a road leading up to the city Amtrak station. Amtrak is in business today, and its employees have jobs, only because they are subsidized with money taken from tax-payers. I suppose a sign for that could have read: Putting Amtrak back to work - which of course actually means, Forcing you to pay for Amtrak, rather than whatever else you valued more

 

"In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause - it is seen. The others unfold in succession - they are not seen: it is well for us, if they are foreseen. Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference - the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee. Now this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favourable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse. Hence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, - at the risk of a small present evil."

-That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen -Frédéric Bastiat, 1850